What CBAM will cost EU imports of steel, fasteners and aluminium in 2027
Every figure on this page comes from Aurelmark's free CBAM API, which serves the EU's official default values, the official mark-ups and the Commission's latest certificate price. Figures pulled 23 October 2026.
Five findings
- Indian hot-rolled coil faces about €423 a tonne in 2027, gross. That is 1.3 times China (€315), twice South Korea (€209) and 2.6 times Brazil (€160).
- Indian bolts and screws face about €565 a tonne, twice Taiwan (€267) and Vietnam (€272). Chinese bolts are higher still, at about €630 a tonne.
- Indonesia's steel defaults are the highest of the ten origins checked: about €813 a tonne for coil, wire rod, tubes and bolts alike. That is 5 times Brazil's coil.
- Unwrought aluminium splits in two. The regulation sets primary-aluminium defaults for China (€296 a tonne), India (€185), Türkiye, Brazil and Indonesia (€168). Korea, Japan, Taiwan, Vietnam and Ukraine get secondary-aluminium defaults, at about €36 a tonne. China's figure is 8 times theirs.
- The bill rises on 1 January even if nothing else changes. The default mark-up goes from 10% in 2026 to 20% in 2027, and to 30% from 2028. At today's certificate price, Indian bolts go from about €518 a tonne on 2026 rules to €565 on 2027 rules. The certificate price itself rose from €75.36 in Q1 2026 to €82.32 in Q3.
These are gross figures: default emissions with the mark-up, times the latest certificate price. What an importer actually pays is usually much lower. See the caveats.
Gross CBAM cost per tonne in 2027
Euros per tonne of product, on 2027 rules at the Q3 2026 certificate price (€82.32). The official default value in tCO2e per tonne is in brackets.
| Origin | Hot-rolled flat (7208) | Wire rod (7213) | Seamless tube (730431) | Welded gas pipe (73063041) | Bolts and screws (731815) | Unwrought aluminium (7601) |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| India | €423 (4.28) | €422 (4.27) | €427 (4.32) | €427 (4.32) | €565 (5.72) | €185 (1.87) |
| China | €315 (3.187) | €313 (3.169) | €265 (2.68) | €352 (3.565) | €630 (6.375) | €296 (3) |
| Türkiye | €240 (2.428) | €228 (2.31) | €231 (2.34) | €222 (2.244) | €536 (5.43) | €168 (1.7) |
| Vietnam | €232 (2.35) | €232 (2.35) | €230 (2.33) | €234 (2.37) | €272 (2.75) | €36 (0.36) |
| Ukraine | €245 (2.483) | €237 (2.397) | €256 (2.596) | €234 (2.371) | €312 (3.153) | €36 (0.36) |
| South Korea | €209 (2.118) | €209 (2.118) | €213 (2.154) | €214 (2.164) | €343 (3.474) | €36 (0.36) |
| Taiwan | €228 (2.31) | €227 (2.298) | €229 (2.313) | €230 (2.333) | €267 (2.707) | €36 (0.36) |
| Brazil | €160 (1.62) | €159 (1.61) | €165 (1.67) | €172 (1.74) | €253 (2.56) | €168 (1.7) |
| Japan | €207 (2.1) | €207 (2.1) | €208 (2.11) | €210 (2.13) | €277 (2.8) | €36 (0.36) |
| Indonesia | €813 (8.23) | €813 (8.23) | €811 (8.21) | €815 (8.25) | €813 (8.23) | €168 (1.7) |
7208 is flat-rolled iron or non-alloy steel, hot-rolled, 600 mm or wider (hot-rolled coil and plate). 7213 is hot-rolled bars and rods in irregular coils (wire rod). 730431 is seamless tubes of circular cross-section. 73063041 is welded threaded or threadable "gas pipe". 731815 is threaded screws and bolts of iron or steel. 7601 is unwrought aluminium. Every steel default is on the regulation's carbon-steel blast-furnace route. For aluminium, the regulation assigns each country either primary or secondary aluminium, and the API reports which one applies.
Method
For each origin and CN code: gross cost = total default value × (1 + mark-up) × certificate price.
- Default value: the "total" default for the country, from Annex I of Implementing Regulation (EU) 2025/2621, as replaced by Implementing Regulation (EU) 2026/1740. For iron, steel and aluminium only direct emissions count, so total equals direct.
- Mark-up: 10% for 2026, 20% for 2027 and 30% from 2028 for iron, steel and aluminium, from the opening paragraphs of the same Annex. The figure with the mark-up is our arithmetic; the binding figure is worked out in the CBAM Registry.
- Certificate price: €82.32 for Q3 2026, published by the Commission. Prices are weekly from 2027. One certificate covers one tonne of CO2e.
To reproduce any cell, call /v1/cbam/default-values?cn=731815&country=IN&year=2027 and read gross_cost_eur_per_tonne: the default 5.72 becomes 6.864 with the mark-up, and €565.04 at the price above. The current price may differ from the one used here, so the API can show a different figure later. Country codes used: IN, CN, TR, VN, UA, KR, TW, BR, JP, ID.
Caveats
- Gross, not net. These are worst-case figures before the adjustment for free allocation in the EU ETS, and before any carbon price already paid in the country of production. The amount owed is usually much lower. We don't compute the free-allocation deduction.
- Defaults are the fallback. An importer whose producer reports verified actual emissions pays on those instead. The mark-up exists to reward real data. So the question is what happens if you have no verified data, not what every shipment will pay.
- The price will move. 2027 obligations are priced at the weekly certificate price, not Q3 2026's. These figures hold the latest published price constant.
- One route per country. The regulation gives each country one default per CN code. A mill on a cleaner route, such as an electric arc furnace, can show it with actual emissions.
- Scope. Indirect emissions (Annex II) and electricity (Annex III) are not included; for iron, steel and aluminium they don't count towards the charge.
- Not legal advice. The binding figures sit in the CBAM Registry and the Official Journal.
Want it worked out for your products? The CBAM cost report gives your cost per tonne and per year for 2026 and 2027, with a source for every number: $29, by email within 24 hours. Or try the free lookup.
Sources
- Implementing Regulation (EU) 2026/1740, replacing Annexes I and IV of 2025/2621: official text.
- Implementing Regulation (EU) 2025/2621: official text.
- European Commission, price of CBAM certificates.
- Regulation (EU) 2023/956, Article 3: official text.
- Aurelmark CBAM API: /v1/cbam/default-values.